SBIR-STTR Award

Improving Neural Network Reliability for Dynamic System Modeling and Control Optimization Through the use of Confidence Measures
Award last edited on: 3/31/2022

Sponsored Program
SBIR
Awarding Agency
NSF
Total Award Amount
$291,621
Award Phase
2
Solicitation Topic Code
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Principal Investigator
Yuchen Lee

Company Information

Unica Corporation (AKA: Unica Technologies Inc)

170 Tracer Lane
Waltham, MA 02451
   (781) 839-8000
   unica@unicacorp.com
   www.unica-usa.com
Location: Multiple
Congr. District: 05
County: Middlesex

Phase I

Contract Number: ----------
Start Date: ----    Completed: ----
Phase I year
1993
Phase I Amount
$57,562
No algorithms exist that generate comprehensive, statistically sound reliability information for neural networks. Reliability of neural nets is affected by: (I) the amount of training data, (2) input novelty, (3) data consistency, and (4) time-varying system dynamics. Confidence measures can gauge network reliability by indicating when sufficient training data has been presented for good generalization, when a neural network's output should be trusted, and when periodic retraining should occur in slow time-varying dynamic systems.They can also help automate neural network controllers in a closed-loop environment. Confidence generation algorithms complement virtually all neural nets and can help their integration with existing controllers into production environments. Researchers are developing and testing confidence algorithms for each of the four independent factors affecting reliability. This research is based on established theories and innovative ideas, using artificial and realworld data.Commercial Applications:Confidence generation algorithms potentially can be used in virtually every real-world neural network solution including those in process control, financial, retail, insurance, and imaging. They will especially benefit neural network controllers demanding high accuracy in process control and optimization by allowing them to be safely used in production with existing successful controllers.

Phase II

Contract Number: ----------
Start Date: ----    Completed: ----
Phase II year
1997
Phase II Amount
$234,059
This Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) Phase II project will develop a prototype confidence-estimator module that can be integrated with real-world neural-network applications. Reliability of neural nets is affected by (1) input novelty, (2) data consistency, and (3) time-varying system dynamics. Confidence measures can gauge network reliability by indicating when a neural network's output should be trusted and when periodic retraining should occur in slow time-varying dynamic systems. Confidence-generation algorithms complement virtually all neural nets and can help their integration into production environments. Phase II will address confidence algorithms for all reliability factors and a method for scaling and combining confidence measures to generate a single probabilistic value. Algorithms will be tested on data from an electrolytic chemical process, metal smelting process, a polymer formulation process control, and an artificial control optimization problem for supply-chain inventory management. A confidence-estimator module potentially can be used in virtually every real-world neural-network solution to improve both the acceptance and performance accuracy. Commercial applications are expected in process control, finance, retail, insurance, and imaging. The confidence-estimator module will be useful to 200-300 rapidly expanding companies currently selling neural-network-based products.