Paradigm Development Group, Ltd., is developing a software package for individual decision support that provides an integrative graphical model, which is initially expanded (problem structuring) and then contracted (analytical structuring) prior to analysis via quantitative models. This process can be characterized as having three phases: divergence, convergence, and analysis. These phases may be repeated iteratively or may be stopped early, depending on the needs of the user. This software uses graphical models to move the user through the structuring and analysis phases. Problem structuring is a combination of text-based queries and the construction of a cognitive map, a directed graph. The software will then aid the user in reducing the cognitive map to an analytically tractable influence diagram during the analytical structuring (convergence) phase. Analytical support for elicitation, sensitivity analysis, and interpretation will be provided during the last phase. This research focuses on the convergence phase. The divergence and analytical phases are well understood and have been automated. The ability to do the convergence phase well is the primary distinction between professional and novice analysts, and has not been examined systematically in the literature. This research will identify, classify, and test sufficient convergence techniques to aid the user in winnowing a large cognitive map down to a reasonable sized influence diagram for analysis. The results will form the basis for future empirical work on the usefulness of the techniques for real-decision makers. This same research area is of great concern to group decision support system developers.The potential commercial application as described by the awardee: The techniques can be used in a wide range of research and development areas for decision aiding systems and for the development of commercial decision support software.
