SBIR-STTR Award

Although the ASP (Accident Sequence Precursor) methodology for analyzing operational data and events for precursors to severe accidents has been in existence for about a decade, it does not now incorporate the analysis of precursors to earthquake initiated and internal-fire-initiated accident sequences. This project's objective is to fill this gap by developing such a methodology. The objective of the Phase I effort is to demonstrate that developing such a methodology for earthquakes and internal fires is fully feasible, and to lay out the steps required for its development. The actual step-by-step methodology will be developed, documented, and a users' guide provided in Phase II. The Phase I project will also determine the types of data and precursor events whose collection and analysis are required, and the PRA-type models whose development is necessary to carry out the methodology. The Phase I project will also provide two stylized case-study examples, one for earthquakes and one for fires, to demonstrate how the fully-developed methodology would work in practice.

Anticipated Results:
If this proposed Phase I project is successful, it will demonstrate the feasibility of incorporating earthquake-initiated and internal-fire-initiated events into the analysis of accident sequence precursors. The overall step-by-step structure of this methodology will be established, the types of data and models needed to carry it out will be identified, and the follow-on Phase II development tasks necessary for the complete methodology will also be identified. This represents a substantial new commercial business opportunity for the developers because many nuclear-power utilities are beginning to perform accident precursor analysis and will need the new methodology.

Although the ASP (Accident Sequence Precursor) methodology for analyzing operational data and events for precursors to severe accidents has been in existence for about a decade, it does not now incorporate the analysis of precursors to earthquake-initiated and internal-fire-initiated accident sequences. This project's objective is to fill this gap by developing such a methodology. The objective of the successful Phase I effort was to demonstrate that developing such a methodology for earthquakes and internal fires is fully feasible, and to lay out the steps required for its development. The actual step-by-step methodology will be developed and documented in Phase II. The Phase II project will provide screening criteria; methodologies for ASP fire-location screening, fire damage-time, detection-time, and suppression-time analyses; benchmark cases for both fire-ASP and seismic-ASP analysis; a compilation of seismic fragilities; and guidance on determining conditional core-damage frequencies.

Anticipated Results:
If this proposed Phase II project is successful, it will provide the methodological guidance necessary for incorporating earthquake-initiated and internal-fire-initiated events into the analysis of accident sequence precursors (ASP). The project will provide screening criteria; standard ASP methodologies; and ASP-type benchmark cases. This represents a substantial new commercial business opportunity for the developers because many nuclear power utilities are beginning to perform accident precursor analysis and will need the new methodology.