Although the ASP (Accident Sequence Precursor) methodology for analyzing operational data and events for precursors to severe accidents has been in existence for about a decade, it does not now incorporate the analysis of precursors to earthquake initiated and internal-fire-initiated accident sequences. This project's objective is to fill this gap by developing such a methodology. The objective of the Phase I effort is to demonstrate that developing such a methodology for earthquakes and internal fires is fully feasible, and to lay out the steps required for its development. The actual step-by-step methodology will be developed, documented, and a users' guide provided in Phase II. The Phase I project will also determine the types of data and precursor events whose collection and analysis are required, and the PRA-type models whose development is necessary to carry out the methodology. The Phase I project will also provide two stylized case-study examples, one for earthquakes and one for fires, to demonstrate how the fully-developed methodology would work in practice.
Anticipated Results:If this proposed Phase I project is successful, it will demonstrate the feasibility of incorporating earthquake-initiated and internal-fire-initiated events into the analysis of accident sequence precursors. The overall step-by-step structure of this methodology will be established, the types of data and models needed to carry it out will be identified, and the follow-on Phase II development tasks necessary for the complete methodology will also be identified. This represents a substantial new commercial business opportunity for the developers because many nuclear-power utilities are beginning to perform accident precursor analysis and will need the new methodology.
