The overall objective of the proposed research is to develop, test, and eventually market small area population estimates that are based in part on micro-level school enrollment data. This Phase I proposal is for a feasibility study that will focus on data availability, data comparability, and estimation methodology. We will approach each public school district in Santa Clara County, California, to learn whether it is willing to supply student address data. We expect several districts that have been our clients to agree to participate in the feasibility study. We will offer written assurance of data confidentiality and of our intention to use all data only in aggregated form. We will study the feasibility of a method for forecasting population of small areas that will be technologically innovative in two major ways. First, we will use GIS (Geographic Information System) software to analyze data and display research findings. Second, we will modify the traditional component method of estimating population. We will emphasize use of public records and school enrollment data for small geographic areas. GIS will be used to link records to geographical areas. Child- adult ratios from the U.S. Census will be derived for many different areas and used in a model to estimate adult populations. Household-level Census data from the Public Use Microdata Surveys (PUMS) will be used along with aggregated data from the Summary Tape files in multiple regressions as part of this analysis.Proposed commercial application:We will produce a geocoded database of children in small geographical areas, as well as accurate estimates of child populations by age, ethnicity, and gender, for ZIP Codes, Census tracts, and other client-specified areas. We will be able to sell GIS maps with the data. The second marketable product will be accurate population estimates for all age groups at the sub-county level.National Institute of Human Development (NIHD)
