This is a proposal to construct a personal computer software package that would produce long range population forecasts in the form of person level files. The package would include base year populations for each of the states and the U.S. It would also provide default projections tied closely to the forecasts of federal agencies, or allow the analyst to substitute customized alternativeS. The package is intended to provide the technical analyst a tool to prepare multiple forecasts of a state or region with modest investment of time and expense. The person level files would consist of a non institutionalized, non disabled population, a non institutionalized disabled population and a population in long term medical care facilities. This would be assembled by statistically matching public use files. The files would include economic and demographic characteristics of the population with an emphasis on demand for long term care services and the capacity to finance these services through personal resources or public financing. The model would compete as a simpler (and less ambitious) alternative to existing products. The manual to accompany the software would provide a detailed guide for preparing historical studies from published data to implement a demographic-economic forecast.Proposed commercial application:This projection software would be marketed to professionals working in demographic applications including insurance companies, state Medicaid agencies, long term care providers, and consultants. The accompanying handbook is expected to have a wider independent audience including researchers and students.National Institute on Aging (NIA)
