We will update and revise a large-scale Macroeconomic-Demographic Model of the U.S. Retirement Income System and Health Care Expenditures developed for NIA. The model projects the population and simulates the behavior of the labor force and the growth of the economy, the operations of the retirement income systems and health care expenditures, focusing on the effects of demographic and economic change. The model depicts the behavior and economic conditions of a large number of demographic groups and investigates the effects of population aging on the economy and on retirement income systems and health care expenditures. It projects the economic resources and health care costs of the elderly. Phase I of the project investigates the economic resources of the elderly by analyzing two micro-databases providing extensive information on the income and assets of households, the Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF) and the Health and Retirement Survey (HRS). These databases will be analyzed to study trends in the assets of the elderly and the interactions among retirement saving and labor market experience. A simple micro-simulation model will be developed to age the SCF data to permit comparison of those data with the HRS data. To adjust the SCF data a model of household asset accumulation will be developed and integrated with the Macroeconomic-Demographic Model. The new modelling system and databases will provide the basis for policy research and analysis and consulting applications for public and private sector organizations.Awardee's statement of the potential commercial applications of the research:Public policy analysis, research, consulting to government agencies, research organizations, academic institutions, advocacy organizations financial services firms, health care providers and insurers, long term care providers, life insurance companies, continuing care retirement communities.National Institute on Aging (NIA)
