Adaptive Methods proposes to define, design and develop innovative approaches, methods and software Tactical Decision Aids (TDAs) to evaluate suitability and likelihood of opposing force (OPFOR) Anti-Submarine Warfare (ASW) threat operations. This project will provide an innovative Threat Suitability TDA that uses fuzzy logic algorithms to define, develop and evaluate threat suitability. Determining the suitability for an OPFOR threat in a naval environment requires Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis; these methods can be thought of as a process that combines and transforms spatial and aspatial input data into a resultant output decision. We are extending this paradigm to include a temporal dimension as a specific type of aspatial domain. The algorithm will utilize all available sources and types of relevant data, to include environmental, historical, intelligence estimates and tactical situation; and harmonize disparate data representations by transliterating or rendering that data into a common geo-temporal representation as needed. The projects key deliverable will define concepts, requirements and algorithms in order to develop a useful ASW threat suitability and likelihood evaluation tactical decision aid for the U.S. Navy.
Benefit: The anticipated benefit to the ASW warfighters is an unbiased estimate of OPFOR threats which provides an enhanced situation awareness. This will result in better optimization of ASW search by searching based on suitability and likelihood decreasing the expected time to locate a threat, provide longer hold times for threat tracks by better predicting where threats may be operating, and allowing ASW assets to be positioned in favorable detection locations. The TDA will also improve safety margins and operational security (OPSEC) by allowing own force operations to be in areas with reduced likelihood of engagement or counter detection by OPFOR. This system has great commercial potential and is widely adaptable, however the most immediate applications are those similar to ASW, such as prediction of narcotics smuggling operations, likely border crossing or covert transit corridors, or the prediction of criminal, terrorist or civil unrest locations. Therefore, secondary markets we intend to pursue include the delivery of this technology to the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA). For the HHS, this technology could be used to predict how an infectious disease attack might be conducted. For the DHS, this technology could be used to predict how a cyber-attack or an attack on our power grid might be conducted. The DEA applications would provide insight in to likely smuggling routes and operations areas aiding in the effectiveness of interdiction operations.
Keywords: threat suitability evaluation, Global information system, ASW threat analysis, geospatial modeling, multi-criteria decision making, ASW
