SBIR-STTR Award

Geo-Political Analysis and Modeling Environment (GAME): A Decision Support Tool for U.S. Naval Future Force Architecture Analysis
Award last edited on: 10/30/2006

Sponsored Program
SBIR
Awarding Agency
DOD : Navy
Total Award Amount
$846,479
Award Phase
2
Solicitation Topic Code
N03-068
Principal Investigator
Patricia A Craig-Hart

Company Information

Cyberneutics Inc

503 Mountain Lake Avenue
Pearisburg, VA 24134
   (540) 242-3386
   cyber1@cyberneutics.com
   www.cyberneutics.com
Location: Single
Congr. District: 09
County: Giles

Phase I

Contract Number: N00178-03-C-2048
Start Date: 7/10/2003    Completed: 1/6/2004
Phase I year
2003
Phase I Amount
$99,998
Determining the composition of future naval force architectures has never depended so critically upon understanding the emerging geo-political environment as it does today. At the same time, however, the end of the Cold War and emergence of non-state asymmetric threat entities have removed the key anchor assumptions that guided long-term naval strategic planning for over five decades. Furthermore, an explosion of data as part of the global revolution in information technology has accompanied the rise in uncertainty associated with the on-going geo-strategic paradigm shift. The combination of ambiguous future trends and ubiquitous praecognita electronica have left naval force architecture analysts drowning in data but starving for information that provides fiscally and culturally constrained alternative geo-political contexts. Cyberneutics, Inc. and its subcontractor Veridian Systems Division, Inc. propose to address this situation with the Geo-Political Analysis and Modeling Environment (GAME), a standard methodology and decision support tool to assist long-term context development for force design and planning efforts. GAME will provide an end-to-end environment where analysts making geo-political predictions can build 'future worlds' using the best tool for the task of indicator construction from a library of pre-built components, including tools to support tapping external data sources. Once built, GAME will support continuous monitoring of the future world and iterative updating of the underlying assumptions and models. Benefits The result of this effort will be Cyberneutics’ Geo-Political Analysis and Modeling Environment (GAME) that includes the Future Worlds Builder, the Template Maker, an Indicator Construction Toolkit, the Future Worlds Monitor, and the Worlds Data Manager. In addition to the DoD market where analysts will be able to use this tool directly to make geo-political predictions for force architecture planning, Cyberneutics has identified the global corporate strategic planning sector as a strong market for these capabilities including: investment planning, global security analysis, wholesale distribution, and telecommunications. In addition to the global corporate market, Cyberneutics has identified organizations that are providing international support for a variety of functions that could benefit from being able to generate and evaluate future worlds. These include security (e.g., NATO), health (e.g., the World Health Organization), and environmental planning and humanitarian/disaster relief (e.g., the American Red Cross). Keywords economics, politics, force architecture, strategic planning, agent-based simulation, future worlds, structured argumentation, critical intent modeling

Phase II

Contract Number: N00178-04-C-2028
Start Date: 8/26/2004    Completed: 8/22/2006
Phase II year
2004
Phase II Amount
$746,481
Determining the composition of future naval force architectures has never depended so critically upon understanding the emerging geo-political environment as it does today. At the same time, however, the end of the Cold War and emergence of non-state asymmetric threat entities have removed the key anchor assumptions that guided long-term naval strategic planning for over five decades. Furthermore, an explosion of data as part of the global revolution in information technology has accompanied the rise in uncertainty associated with the on-going geo-strategic paradigm shift. The combination of ambiguous future trends and ubiquitous praecognita electronica have left naval force architecture analysts drowning in data but starving for information that provides fiscally and culturally constrained alternative geo-political contexts. Cyberneutics, Inc. and its subcontractor General Dynamics Advanced Information Systems/Veridian Systems Division, Inc. propose to address this situation with the Geo-Political Analysis and Modeling Environment (GAME), a standard methodology and decision support tool to assist long-term context development for force design and planning efforts. GAME will provide an end-to-end environment where analysts making geo-political predictions can build "alternative futures" using the best tool for the task of indicator construction from a library of pre-built components, including tools to support tapping external data sources. The GAME Phase II prototype will support continuous monitoring of the future world and iterative updating of the underlying assumptions and models.

Keywords:
ECONOMICS, POLITICS, FORCE ARCHITECTURE, STRATEGIC PLANNING, MODELING, ALTERNATIVE FUTURES, STRUCTURED ARGUMENTATION, CRITICAL INTENT MODELING