The proposed work will provide a methodology for assessing the reliability relative to all important structural failure modes for existing ships and ship designs that are still on the drawing board. For a given ship, the computerized identified. System reliability analysis will be performed where appropriate. This methodology will be capable of performing probabilistic analysis when required, and also will be capable of deriving probability based design requirements. The methodology will be demonstrated on four ships (two U.S. Navy vessels, an SL-7, and a double hull tanker). Recommendations will be made of the minimum acceptable reliability levels for each ship and failure mode. Demonstration of a probability bases design code, using a partial safety factor format like LRFD, will be provided. Also guidelines will be provided for improving design criteria for future ships based on sensitivity analysis of reliability levels to variations in design parameters, including material properties and loading conditions as well as safety margins. Moreover, design improvements that have the highest payoffs, i.e. increase in reliability and/or reduction in weight will be identified on the basis of a sensitivity analysis.
Keywords: TARGET RELIABILITY RELIABILITY SHIP DESIGNS PROBABILITY BASED DESIGNS TARGET RELIABILITY
