SBIR-STTR Award

The proposed SBIR develops the first-ever computational-model-based wind turbulence forecasts for ultra-high-altitudes. It applies innovative weather-translation methods to ultra-high weather forecasts to provide an Upper Class E (UCE) Weather Guidance Service (UWGS). UWGS is highly relevant to Subtopic A3.01 because it addresses two key ATM challenges relevant to improving capacity, throughput, and safety of near-future (2025-30) NAS operations in UCE airspace: (1) wind and weather effects in UCE airspace pose significant safety and deconfliction challenges to aviation operations and (2) current weather prediction and translation tools are inadequate to meet these challenges. We address these challenges by first developing an ultra-high-altitude computational wind turbulence forecast model by extending NCAR’s gold-standard GTG Class A airspace wind turbulence prediction model. Then, we develop innovative weather translation methods to improve (1) flight intent predictions in UCE airspace, (2) wind hazard alerting, and (3) aircraft separation envelopes, based on wind and aircraft performance, for use in UCE traffic management cooperative separation services. In Phase II, we expand UWGS to address the broader cooperative separation problem in UCE airspace. UWGS supports crucial weather guidance service needs for the ETM Separation Service simulations planned by NASA ATM-X’s Collaborative Traffic Management sub-project. UWGS also provides a digital service for potential integration into NASA ATM-X’s DIP-TS sub-project’s planned Digital Information Platform. Anticipated results of Phase I are a table-top proof-of-concept demonstration based on a UCE flight intent prediction, wind hazard alerting, and separation envelope guidance for a cooperative separation scenario involving at least two UCE aircraft types, which will be chosen in coordination with NASA, FAA, and ETM operators. Potential NASA Applications (Limit 1500 characters, approximately 150 words): Weather Guidance Supplementary Data Service for supporting ETM Separation Service simulations planned by NASA ATM-X’s Collaborative Traffic Management Digital service for integration into NASA ATM-X’s DIP sub-project’s Digital Information Platform NASA ER-2 high-altitude airborne science aircraft flight planning and dispatching improvements Potential Non-NASA Applications (Limit 1500 characters, approximately 150 words): Flight planning decision aids for UCE and DOD aircraft operators Wind-Informed Flight Intent Prediction service for ETM operators Upper Class E Wind Hazard Prediction service for ETM operators Dynamic, wind- and aircraft-performance-dependent Separation Envelope guidance service for supporting ETM operators’ cooperative separation services as well as FAA’s regulatory oversight service Duration: 6

Today’s operational wind guidance lacks turbulence forecasts in Upper Class E (UCE) airspace. Nor does it provide sufficient spatial and temporal granularity necessary to support accurate flight intent prediction. This gap threatens the economic viability and scalability of increased UCE flight operations above FL600. The proposed SBIR address these significant challenges by developing several innovations: (1) the extension of NCAR’s gold-standard wind turbulence prediction model to UCE altitudes to create the first-ever UCE wind turbulence forecast model, (2) high-resolution wind forecast-driven Analytical Trajectory Simulations for several UCE vehicle types, (3) dynamic, wind- and aircraft-type-sensitive separation envelope guidance, and (4) wind-sensitive conflict detection. UWGS is highly relevant to Subtopic A3.01 because it addresses the above discussed key ATM challenges to improve efficiency, capacity, throughput, and safety of near-future (2025-30) diverse and unconventional NAS operations in UCE airspace as well as enabling more efficient high-altitude, UTM-based cooperative separation concepts. Phase I demonstrated that UWGS outperformed state-of-the-art flight intent prediction methods and provided actionable wind hazard guidance with thresholds customizable to individual vehicle types. Phase II validates and enhance Phase I methods, and develops new innovations for Separation Budget method-based separation envelope guidance, probabilistic flight intent prediction, and probabilistic wind/turbulence forecasts. UWGS supports crucial weather guidance service needs for the ETM Separation Service simulations planned by NASA ATM-X’s xTM sub-project. UWGS also provides a digital service for integration into NASA ATM-X’s DIP sub-project’s Digital Information Platform. Anticipated results are a working prototype Supplemental Data Service for one or more high-value customer applications, which will be chosen in coordination with NASA, FAA, and ETM operators. Potential NASA Applications (Limit 1500 characters, approximately 150 words): 1. Weather Guidance Supplemental Data Service (including wind, turbulence, and other weather effects) for supporting Upper Class E Traffic Management (ETM) Separation Service simulations planned by NASA ATM-X’s Extensible Traffic Management (xTM) sub-project 2. ETM digital services for integration into NASA ATM-X’s DIP sub-project’s Digital Information Platform 3. NASA ER-2 high-altitude airborne science aircraft flight planning and dispatching improvements Potential Non-NASA Applications (Limit 1500 characters, approximately 150 words): 1. Flight planning decision aids for commercial and DoD ETM operators 2. Wind-Informed Flight Intent Prediction Service for ETM operators 3. UCE Wind Hazard Guidance Service for ETM operators 4. Dynamic Separation Envelope Guidance Service for supporting ETM operators’ cooperative separation services as well as FAA’s regulatory oversight service 5. ETM Conflict Detection Service for ETM operators Duration: 24