The goal of this project is to develop a set of innovative, computer-based methods for performing integrated risk assessment and management of schedules and costs for the space shuttle ground processing. These varied methods include hierarchical influence diagrams for integrated modeling of dependencies among task schedules and costs at multiple levels of complexity, an easy-to-use tool for probabilistic encoding of uncertainties, decision-oriented methods for rating risk factors, techniques for updating time and cost probability distributions in the light of experience, modeling of contingent schedules, and insightful displays for communicating the results. The methods would be prototyped and evaluated by a company-developed software package that uses hierarchical influence diagrams for probabilistic modeling. The new tools would provide a fully integrated system for analyzing schedules and cost risks.
Potential Commercial Applications:These methods will provide the basis for a new kind of project management tool that uses risk analysis of scheduling and costs. There is widespread demand for such a tool, throughout industry and government, wherever there are large technical projects with uncertain schedules and costs.
