Activities at KSC continue to become more weather sensitive,resulting in the need for improved forecasts of thunderstorms and theirassociated phenomena both for KSC as a whole and, particularly, forspecific work complexes over periods of 24 hours or more. Mesoscalenumerical prognostic models appear to offer the potential for enhancedforecast accuracy. A new, nested grid, non-hydrostatic model (ARAMS, theAdvanced Regional Atmospheric Modeling System) is believed capable ofpredicting the details of the local terrain forcing which results invarious thunderstorms related to the Atlantic sea breeze, including thesmaller-scaler (<5 km) perturbations induced by rivers and islands inthe KSC area. Climatological and modeling studies of one such phenomena,the Merritt Island Thunderstorm (MIT), will serve as a test of theplausibility of producing useful numerical model-generated forecasts forwork complexes on the scale of 8 km across during the upcoming 12-24hour period. Data from the summer KABLE experiment will be utilized. Theproject can also serve as part of the planning for the 1991 CAPEexperiment. Tests will be conducted to assess whether new, low-costgraphics supercomputers can provide computational power and graphicssufficient to forecast MIT-scale phenomena within operationalconstraints.There is a growing requirement for improved regional forecasting systemswithin military operations, electric utilities, nuclear energy, water,forest and range management and national weather services. New mesoscalenumerical forecasting systems tailored for specific users and locations,combined with graphics supercomputers workstations are evolving into asignificant market segment during the 1990s.thunderstorm forecasting, mesoscale numerical prognostic model
