OptTek Systems, Inc (OptTek), proposes an affordable, effective UQ capability for both legacy and new BMDS M&S. The OptTek Team includes research institution partner Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and subcontractor RTSync Corporation (RTSync). The proposed BMDS M&S UQ capability maximizes insertability into existing and future MDA BMDS M&S-supported Event processes, analysis methods, architectures, simulations and frameworks. The OptTek Team will deliver systems engineering artifacts for an objective end-state BMDS M&S UQ Reference Architecture configured on RTSync?s proven Discrete Event Systems Specification (DEVS) for straightforward insertion into existing and new BMDS M&S tools. The BMDS M&S UQ capability builds on the ORNL?s methods and experience with Quantification of Margins and Uncertainties (QMU) to provide an objective measure of confidence in M&S-based results. The OptTek Team proposes innovative epistemic UQ by leveraging the Government?s prior investment in the OptDef BMDS Simulation Optimization. In the Phase I Option, the OptTek Team proposes a prototype demonstration of joint epistemic and aleatoric UQ and QMU using existing MDA BMDS M&S tools, OptDef with the Monte Carlo simulation capability in the Extended Air Defense Simulation (EADSIM). OptTek?s 20-year track record commercializing advanced algorithms and SBIR products maximizes the likelihood of commercialization success.
Keywords: Uncetainty Quantification, Quantification Of Margins And Uncertainties, Modeling And Simulation, Optimization, Sensitivity Analysis, Monte Carlo Simulation, Technology Inserti
