Estimating the human resource requirements of new weapon systems early in the development cycle requires the use of expert judgment in the extrapolation of future system design, operating environment and maintenance concepts from current systems and proposed concepts. That judgment inevitably introduces uncertainties and risk into the estimates. Formal decision-analytical techniques have been developed in other contexts to address these problems. The proposed effort would develop an innovative integration of these techniques with the early-on manpower requirements estimating methodology (emrem). The enhanced model would strengthen the comparability judgments and estimates, by introducting formal methods of eliciting and evaluating expert judgment, by explicitly incorporating estimates of risk and uncertainty into the process, and by developing methods for evaluating trade-offs of manpower, cost, and performance at the concept development phase.
