The prediction of mesoscale dispersion, for emergency response purposes, is critically dependent upon accurately forecasting the 3-d wind field within the domain of interest several hours in advance. Currently available emergency response systems, which typically use some form of gaussian diffusion model combined with wind fields interpolated from scattered surface layer wind measurements, are, under many mesoscale regimes, incapable of describing the current complex ransport and diffusion found in regions such as Vandenberg AFB, much less projecting several hours into the future. A new generation of mesoscale numerical models appears capable of forecasting the detailed 3-d windfloiv in coastal complex terrain to a degree sufficient to significantly improve regional diffustion predictions. Phase I aims at demonstrating that the regional atmospheric modeling system (rams) can accomplish this task. If successful, this paves the way for subsequent efforts to port the rams model into an operational environment.
