Phase II of this project expands and deepens a top-down aircraft cost model whose feasibility was demonstrated in Phase I of the program. "Top-down" implies that the model emphasizes total systems cost. This model produces valid cost estimates of complete aeronautical systems, given the sparse system deinition that is usually available in the Conceptual Phase. The objective of Phase II is an end product designated as the Advanced Aircraft Forecasting Model (AAFM). This tool predicts acquisition costs by forecasting technology growth; it does this by extrapolating growth trends in aircraft complexity parameters over time. The model is integrally packaged with a condensed historical database, which is the source of the technology-forecasting trends. The model is designed for use by advanced mission planners who apply cost as a criterion in high-level tradeoffs and feasibility studies. Such users typically lack the expertise or the money to run sophisticated parametric models such as GE PRICE. Instead, AAFM offers the capability for novice-friendly estimation of advanced aircraft concepts using IBM and compatible microcomputers.
