SBIR-STTR Award

We propose developing model-based data mining tools that incorporate orbital dynamics with available data to assess the vulnerability of tactical satellites. We are proposing enhancement to predictive algorithms we developed for AFRL''s SAFIRE testbed under a FY07 SBIR. These tools take available data on the orbital catalog and missile models and propagate into the future to determine vulnerability windows of satellites to either a direct ascent launch or a satellite from another orbit; they are promising but additional data mining tools are required to fully populate their inputs. In the case of delta-V mapping, the estimated delta-V capability of a specific satellite is required to compute windows of opportunity from a map of delta-V over time. We propose an Unscented Kalman Filter as a ground tool to estimate satellite mass and maneuvers from ground observations, leading to better estimates of delta-V capability. The current direct ascent algorithms require knowledge of the launch site and a specific missile model. We propose developing a running forecast of possible threats considering a database of missile models and sites and additional and real-time dynamic analysis for discrimination between a benign launch and an attack.

Benefit:
All current and future DoD space missions could benefit from this technology. Using all available data to predict the vulnerability of our assets is a critical part of situation assessment. In this case we are providing both static predictions based on the satellite catalog and potential launches, and dynamic prediction for actual direct ascent launches. This technology is applicable to commercial missions from a safety point of view, although we are likely limited to US markets due to ITAR restrictions. The DAV tools can be used to assess risk from planned launches. The DV Mapping can be used for predicting collision risks or for assigning satellites from a service constellation to a particular rendezvous.

Keywords:
Defensive Counterspace, Direct Ascent, Data Mining Tool

We plan to develop an operation-ready version of the next-generation Direct Ascent Vulnerability web service with UDOP visualization. The DAV suite will include the dynamic predictive functionality and reachability service prototyped in Phase I and a new vehicle trajectory prediction algorithm to be prototyped in Phase II. The DAV tools take available data on the orbital catalog and missile models and utilize orbital dynamics to determine vulnerability windows of satellites to either a direct ascent launch or a satellite from another orbit. Reachability provides a running forecast of possible threats considering a database of missile models and sites and the dynamic predictive function provides real-time analysis for discrimination between a benign launch and an attack. The service provides live and exercise modes and can be used for what-if analysis or launch planning. The operational web service must be compatible with the JSpOC Mission System (JMS) architecture and accept various real message types including ILAM, T-3, and IBS messages, and handle special perturbations satellite elements. We will deploy the new service suite on AFRL's Battlespace Evaluation Assessment Space Testbed, or BEAST, and perform testing on real-time and prepackaged data sets as available to determine the accuracy of the satellite vulnerability predictions.

Benefit:
This technology will predict which satellites are vulnerable to a direct ascent launch in real-time, in addition to providing what-if and predictive analysis. The JSpOC Mission System needs services like this to assist in space situational awareness. The recent use of direct ascent launch against satellites by both the U.S. and China indicate that this is a real threat. This suite of services was designed for predicting satellite vulnerability from the beginning and will outperform terrestrial applications designed for surface-to-surface missiles. There is a potential commercial application of a portion of the toolset for launch planning and collision avoidance, in both MATLAB and standalone application formats.

Keywords:
Data Mining, Direct Ascent, Satellite Vulnerability, Space Situational Awareness, Service Oriented Architecture, Web Service