Next-Generation Debris Prediction Method For Hardened Structures
Award last edited on: 6/7/2023

Sponsored Program
Awarding Agency
DOD : Navy
Total Award Amount
Award Phase
Solicitation Topic Code
Principal Investigator
John Tatom

Company Information

A-P-T Research Inc (AKA: APT Research )

4950 Research Drive
Huntsville, AL 35805
   (256) 327-3392
Location: Single
Congr. District: 05
County: Madison

Phase I

Contract Number: N68335-20-C-0658
Start Date: 7/8/2020    Completed: 1/4/2021
Phase I year
Phase I Amount
A-P-T Research, Inc. (APT) and teammates, Karagozian & Case (K&C) and Applied Research Associates (ARA), are proposing to develop an innovative Fast-Running Model (FRM) for Debris Prediction Methodology (DPM) for hardened structure secondary debris that will enhance existing Navy and Department of Defense (DoD) site planning and design methodologies and tools. APT will utilize state-of-the-art High-Fidelity Physics-Based (HFPB) computational tools to generate synthetic data to be used for development of a new FRM. HFPB computational tools have made substantial progress in their fidelity and reliability and have become a proven technology capable of accurately predicting the response and breakup of structures and the associated secondary debris. Proper use of HFPB tools by expert users can generate the necessary data for a new DPM FRM within the scope of a SBIR program. However, traditional HFPB methods are difficult for DoD stakeholders to verify and validate, require large computational resources (CPU time and memory) for any one weapon-target-interaction (WTI) scenario, and are challenging to reduce and simplify to modify the existing methodologies. With this in mind, the APT team propose conducting a Research and Development (R&D) effort towards solving three key challenges: (1) incorporating reliability analysis and stochastic procedures into the recently developed HFPB Coupled Computational Fluid Dynamics and Computational Solid Dynamics (CFD/CSD) computational models capable of predicting the response, limit states, and secondary debris of structures in expedited time scales; (2) developing methods to validate the HFPB CFD/CSD models with existing and future sub-scale and full-scale test data; and (3) developing FRMs that utilize both experimental and computational secondary debris data to enhance the existing methodologies in the DoDs Technical Papers. By the end of Phase II, APT plans to deliver DPM FRMs that provide improved analytic capabilities and a debris-specific model that will do for debris prediction what TP-17/Blast Effects Computer (BEC) has done for airblast prediction, i.e., provide a , i.e., fast-running, reliable, and easy to use tool. APT anticipates that the results of the proposed R&D can directly support the Navy in upgrading the methodologies to improve design regulations and standard designs for magazines, including hardened structures. APT is well-positioned to lead the effort to support the Navy in a transition to modern viable tools for secondary debris prediction. APTs background in explosives safety, secondary debris data collection and processing, and in FRM development will supply key insights to ensure that the FRM will meet Naval Ordnance Safety and Security Activity (NOSSA) needs. Further, by partnering with K&C and ARA, the team will bring state-of-the-art CFD, finite element and mesh-free CSD, Coupled CFD/CSD, and hybrid computational capabilities to ensure a highly innovative solution.

Product will be immediately useful to DoD Explosives Safety Board (DDESB), Naval Facilities Engineering and Expeditionary Warfare Center (NAVFAC EXWC), U.S. Army Technical Center for Explosives Safety (USATCES), Air Force Safety Center (AFSEC), Institute of Makers of Explosives (IME), and commercial entities. Beyond explosives safety, the Debris Prediction Methodology (DPM) could be expanded for use in estimating the potential secondary debris from targets struck by air-delivered munitions, making it attractive for planning military operations in urban terrain with increased precision in collateral damage estimation. Transition to the weaponeering community could be through weapons effects planning tools such as IMEA or Modular Effectiveness Vulnerability Assessment (MEVA), as the team did with Mobile Target Secondary Debris (MTSD).

fast running model, fast running model, DDESB Technical Paper-13, SAFER (DDESB Technical Paper-14), SHAMRC, Debris Prediction Methodology, Stochastic and Reliability Analysis Methodologies, Secondary Debris, KC-FEMFRE

Phase II

Contract Number: N68335-22-C-0094
Start Date: 11/8/2021    Completed: 11/9/2022
Phase II year
Phase II Amount
This project will provide Fast-Running Models (FRMs) for analyzing debris hazards from internal detonations in ammunition storage magazines. The FRMs will be better than a back of the envelope prediction, but not as expensive (time or money) as a High-Fidelity Physics-Based (HFPB) solution. No FRM currently exists to provide the breadth and depth of analytical capabilities required by the explosives safety community. Existing FRMs may provide part of what is required but tend to be conservative, when a conservatism neutral approach is needed. In Phase I, the team extended HFPB analysis methods using stochastic methodologies and procedures to predict the structural response, secondary debris, and airblast generated by bare high-explosive charges detonated and contained inside a reinforced concrete containment structure. The results from these stochastic coupled HFPB (SC-HFPB) methods, which utilized novel coupled Meshfree Computational Solid Dynamics and Computational Fluid Dynamics (CSD/CFD) computational methods, were demonstrated as feasible through comparing predictions with data available from the Kasun III experiments. Concepts for using the HFPB computational results to generate FRMs for debris generation analysis and debris density prediction were developed and described in the Phase I Final Report. In Phase II, the stochastic analysis methods for both structural and explosives effects characterizations will be completed in preparation for validation against test data and for developing two prototype FRMs, one with the capability to predict debris generation (Debris Analysis Tool (DAT)) and one that calculates debris density (Debris Density Calculator (DDC)), from an internal detonation in a magazine. The following objectives are proposed: 1. Complete and validate the SC-HFPB models for explosives effects, structural response, secondary debris, and airblast. 2. Identify and select parameters for generating response data for magazines. 3. Produce a structural response (debris generation) database using the SC-HFPB models. 4. Develop prototype DAT and DDC FRMs. The Phase II project will be completed in three spirals (development cycles coinciding with the base and two option years). Each spiral will include validation activities, enhancement of SC-HFPB capabilities, new FRM versions, and a plan for the next spiral. The intent is to develop a robust model for a limited set of magazines in the first spiral and to expand the number of magazines that can be modeled in subsequent spirals.

DAT and DDC will provide DON and DoD with analytical capabilities that do not currently exist. Currently, to achieve levels of fidelity anticipated in DAT and DDC, DON must use HFPB computations, which are exceptionally time-consuming and probably require either a MIPR to DON specialty centers, such as EXWC, or a contract with an analytical company, such as K&C or ARA. For planning capabilities that can be completed as rapidly as DAT and DDC, DON uses tools from TP-13 and TP-16, which lack the fidelity that DAT and DDC will provide.

FRM, coupled, ECM, WSI, magazine, HFPB, Stochastic, debris