Phase II year
2019
(last award dollars: 2022)
Phase II Amount
$3,568,435
A simulation optimization tool can exploit existing BMDS simulation models to streamline the scenario generation analysis process. Our Phase II project will focus on using a simulation optimization approach to solve the problem of generating a minimal collection of test scenarios, using the minimum number of shared scenario components that meets a required set of test objectives. Each individual scenario taken through the end to end scenario generation process involves substantial effort including discussion, documentation, and manual scenario generation in high fidelity tools. Likewise, scenario components require a great deal of time and effort to prepare for the test event. We will explore the use of an optimization tool with medium fidelity digital simulation models early in the scenario generation process to minimize the required test scenarios and scenario components. Reducing the number of test scenarios and scenario components has the potential to significantly reduce the end to end scenario generation timeline and associated costs. We will leverage the SBIR-derived OptDef simulation optimization and analysis tool to prototype our scenario generation optimization approach. We will also explore ways for this technology to be used in digital event test planning and also exercise event test planning to enable maximum benefit. Approved for Public Release | 19-MDA-9932 (21 Feb 19) ---------- Through previous Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) projects and subsequent work, OptTek has created software called OptDef that integrates with constructive Department of Defense (DoD) simulation tools and provides simulation optimization and analytics. It has been integrated with over a dozen different simulation tools, and its open architecture allows straightforward integration with additional simulations. The Missile Defense Agency (MDA) is developing a high-fidelity digital simulation capability to support the SoS M&S Enterprise This Phase II SBIR project will explore different custom applications of the OptDef simulation optimization and analysis framework to enable MDS analysts to achieve the best analysis results possible from the coming digital simulation environment while executing the fewest simulation runs. To put it another way, with a limited number of simulation runs available, how can we choose the best sets of simulation runs to execute to get very good results. The primary use case we propose to explore in this project comes from a desire to generate collections of related heat maps to show effectiveness measures of different MDS system configurations in defense of US interests against various threats and threat employment options. In an earlier effort, OptTek created and delivered software to obtain the desired results for a single heat map with vastly fewer simulation runs using a novel Kriging-based approach. In this Phase II project, OptTek will perform research and development to extend and enhance this initial work to obtain the desired results for a collection of related heat maps, and by considering and building them concurrently, will further reduce the number of simulation runs required to achieve the desired analysis results. Approved for Public Release | 22-MDA-11339 (13 Dec 22)
