SBIR-STTR Award

In modern warfare, the ability for commanders to accurately forecast the behavior of a given population is essential for making high-quality decisions that can determine the success or failure of a mission. Anthropological experts can provide help to commanders in assessing certain situations and would-be effects of alternative actions, but such experts may not have enough up-to-date information, and they often bring their own biases. An alternative approach to behavior forecasting is to use computational methods, which have the benefits of being usable by non-experts, can be updated with the latest data in an automated fashion, and are free from personal bias. Aware of these issues, the OSD is seeking solutions for algorithmic behavioral forecasting. EDAptive Computing, Inc. (ECI) team proposes MAMBA, which will result in an innovative and commercially viable prototype system whose architecture and processes will result in more accurate and robust forecasts of human population behaviors. Through innovative algorithms and modeling techniques, embedded into a flexible and intuitive simulation framework, MAMBA will provide a solution to aid commanders in making decisions that involve such populations.

Keywords:
Decision Making, Anthropology, Cultural Dynamics, Modeling And Simulation, Genetic Algorithms, Software Systems

The Edaptive Computing, Inc. (Edaptive) team presents our Phase II proposal for a unique and commercially viable innovation to enhance algorithmic methods for forecasting behaviors of population groups with respect to culture. Our Modeling and Algorithmic Methods for Behavior Anticipation (MAMBA) solution will allow users to utilize advanced behavior modeling and forecasting techniques incorporated in executable models, which can be rapidly configured and deployed using an easy-to-use graphical user interface. The target users for the MAMBA solution include military commanders and global supply chain logistics planners for its predictive analytics capability, as well as first responders and military teams in the context of real-time virtual training. We have established the technical feasibility of the MAMBA product during the Phase I SBIR project and have developed a plan to develop a commercial grade component library and subsequent transition to ONR and Air Force Global Logistics Support Center during Phase II and beyond. In this Phase II proposal we present our approach to leveraging our Phase I results in establishing feasibiliy, the transition avenues we identified, and the preliminary architecture we developed, to prove the concept, produce the product, and accomplish technology transition.

Keywords:
Decision Making, Anthropology, Cultural Dynamics, Modeling And Simulation, Human Social And Cultural Behavior Modeling, Supply Chain Analytics