SBIR-STTR Award

The development, testing and marketing of a new tool for the short-term (~1 hr) forecasting and warning of severe weather (i.e., tornadoes and large hail), involving the use of multi-spectral satellite imagery, is proposed by Woodley Weather Consultants. The proposal is based on its finding that height profiles of cloud effective radius, showing a deep zone of diffusion droplet growth, little coalescence, no precipitation, and delayed glaciation to near the temperature of homogeneous nucleation (~ -38oC) appear to be associated with tornadoes and hail. The initial analyses suggest that the severe storm signature is an extensive property of the clouds before storm outbreaks, suggesting that the probabilities of tornadoes and large hail and can be obtained at lead times > 1 hour as contrasted with the current NWS warning lead times < 15 minutes. These apparent relationships must be tested in Phase I on an independent set of GOES satellite imagery to refine and test them. This will entail the use of archived and future multispectral GOES imagery instead of polar-orbiter satellite data, which were used to derive the relationships. Upon successful completion of Phase I, an operational severe-weather forecasting system, making primary use of current and projected multi-spectral GOES satellite imagery, will be developed under SBIR Phase II and then marketed to potential users.

Potential Commercial Applications:
The methodology will be marketed to governmental and private entities that are mandated to develop forecasting methods that will mitigate the losses of lives and property due to severe weather, especially tornadoes and large hail

The results of SBIR Phase I suggest that it will be possible to make much improved short-term severe weather forecasts ("nowcasts") for severe convective storms and especially for tornadoes by using GOES multi-spectral satellite imagery in conjunction with more traditional tornadoforecasting parameters. When the clouds in a region have a strong linear profile of satelliteretrieved effective radius over virtually their entire depths and when glaciation occurs in these clouds at the temperature of homogenous freezing (i.e., ~-38oC), there is a much increased risk of tornadoes, especially when CAPE, helicity and wind shear are concurrently large. The next step under SBIR Phase II will be the development of an operational system that will lead to improved severe storm watches and warnings. Phase I did not provide nearly enough time for full method development. Consequently, Phase II must involve the development and use of an automated algorithm, adapted to real-time imagery, which will quantify the tornado risk of the clouds in each image. Analysis of the much larger sample will be made in order to quantify the probability of severe weather in each cloud system as a function of time. Logistic regression will again be used for this quantification. The third task of SBIR Phase II will involve an operational real-time test of the methodology during the tornado season of 2008 in conjunction with personnel with the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) and the National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL). The real-time data stream for this effort will be provided by NASA Langley’s Cloud and Radiation Research Program. Maps of tornado probability will be generated in real time using the specialized methodology to quantify cloud properties, the logistic regression coefficients and the probability of tornadoes. An objective assessment of the value of the products will be sought on a continuing basis from their users. The tasks of SBIR Phase II will be accomplished under the umbrella of Woodley Weather Consultants through the efforts of the talented research team that participated in Phase I.

Potential Commercial Applications:
After completion of Phase II, the specialized, real-time, severe-weather, forecast products will be generated in the private sector and marketed to private and governmental entities having severe storm interest and forecast responsibility such as the Storm Prediction Center. This will be the commercialization phase (i.e., Phase III) of the SBIR effort